Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Tavares 56.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 66.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Hayton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hayton
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
57.7% (975)
-5.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
56.0% (250)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
52.2% (23)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Hayton
Tavares
Home
56.8% (433)
57.4% (636)
Away
47.4% (344)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Hayton
Tavares
P1
52.8%
57.5%
P2
50.3%
56.9%
P3
55.4%
57.5%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |