Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 73.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 81.8%
Neutral zone
Hayton 75.8%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Hayton
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hayton
Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Hayton
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
45.0% (695)
+7.4%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
46.4% (84)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
32.9% (85)
+3.9%
On power play, Hayton has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Hayton
Carlsson
Home
56.8% (433)
42.5% (435)
Away
47.4% (344)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Hayton
Carlsson
P1
52.8%
45.3%
P2
50.3%
38.7%
P3
55.4%
48.5%
OT
25.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
59.5%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |