Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Frost 56.4% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 50.9%
Defensive zone
Hayton 80.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 66.9%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Hayton
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Frost
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Hayton
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Hayton
Frost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
56.0% (755)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
60.1% (173)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
88.9% (9)
-52.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Hayton
Frost
Home
56.8% (433)
57.3% (497)
Away
47.4% (344)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Hayton
Frost
P1
52.8%
60.2%
P2
50.3%
56.0%
P3
55.4%
54.8%
OT
25.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |