Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Paul 53.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 50.2%
Neutral zone
Hayton 57.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Hayton
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayton
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Hayton
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
53.7% (354)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
59.0% (61)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
52.9% (34)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Hayton
Paul
Home
56.8% (433)
55.1% (216)
Away
47.4% (344)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Hayton
Paul
P1
52.8%
54.9%
P2
50.3%
54.5%
P3
55.4%
54.3%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |