Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 56.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 62.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Hayton
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayton
Cates
Last 6: Hayton 2-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Hayton
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Hayton
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
45.5% (756)
+6.9%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
42.1% (114)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
44.7% (47)
-7.9%
On power play, Hayton has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Hayton
Cates
Home
56.8% (433)
46.2% (468)
Away
47.4% (344)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Hayton
Cates
P1
52.8%
46.0%
P2
50.3%
47.5%
P3
55.4%
42.1%
OT
25.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |