Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.2%). Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Thomas 51.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 51.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 51.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 50.8%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Hayton
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Hayton
Thomas
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
5
Hayton
Thomas
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
1
Hayton
Thomas
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Hayton
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
50.3% (652)
+2.1%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
61.5% (104)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
54.2% (120)
-17.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Hayton
Thomas
Home
56.8% (433)
52.0% (400)
Away
47.4% (344)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Hayton
Thomas
P1
52.8%
49.6%
P2
50.3%
55.4%
P3
55.4%
51.0%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |