Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Poehling 48.0% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 58.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 74.6%
Neutral zone
Poehling 57.4%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Hayton
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hayton
Poehling
Last 6: Hayton 1-5 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Hayton
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Hayton
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
50.4% (680)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
58.3% (12)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
38.8% (219)
-2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Hayton
Poehling
Home
56.8% (433)
47.4% (422)
Away
47.4% (344)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Hayton
Poehling
P1
52.8%
53.3%
P2
50.3%
40.3%
P3
55.4%
50.0%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |