Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Larkin 52.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 70.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.5%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Lizotte
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lizotte
Larkin
Last 5: Lizotte 3-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
51.1% (915)
+1.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
59.4% (261)
-34.4%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
48.2% (168)
-5.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Larkin
Home
44.2% (242)
51.7% (686)
Away
56.0% (234)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Lizotte
Larkin
P1
49.6%
52.5%
P2
46.9%
52.7%
P3
52.6%
51.4%
OT
100.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:44 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |