Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 91.0%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 57.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Lizotte
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lizotte
Paul
Last 6: Lizotte 4-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
53.7% (354)
-0.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
59.0% (61)
-34.0%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
52.9% (34)
-9.8%
On power play, Paul has a +34.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Paul
Home
44.2% (242)
55.1% (216)
Away
56.0% (234)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lizotte
Paul
P1
49.6%
54.9%
P2
46.9%
54.5%
P3
52.6%
54.3%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |