Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.8% vs Monahan 53.1% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 81.7%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 58.1%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Lizotte
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Lizotte
Monahan
Last 10: Lizotte 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Lizotte
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
5
Lizotte
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (279)
53.8% (664)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (102)
50.0% (62)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Lizotte is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (244).
Lizotte shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Monahan
Home
45.1% (182)
54.8% (405)
Away
58.8% (199)
52.2% (458)
By Period
Lizotte
Monahan
P1
51.9%
49.6%
P2
50.0%
53.9%
P3
54.3%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
65.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
60.0%▲
55.0%
52.2%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |