Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wheeler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 46.1% vs Sturm 56.2% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 59.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 97.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 92.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 78.8%
21.2%
78.8%
Wheeler
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Wheeler
Sturm
Last 9: Wheeler 7-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
4
0
Wheeler
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Wheeler
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wheeler
3
0
Wheeler
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (1,369)
57.1% (2,681)
-10.4%
Power Play
46.9% (207)
61.3% (62)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (129)
51.7% (482)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Wheeler is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,172).
Wheeler shoots right. Sturm is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,066).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Sturm
Home
47.5% (883)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
44.2% (822)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Wheeler
Sturm
P1
45.0%
56.4%
P2
48.2%
55.1%
P3
44.5%
57.6%
OT
37.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
45.9%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |