Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 44.1% vs Larsson 49.5% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Groulx 53.2%
Defensive zone
Larsson 64.8%
Neutral zone
Larsson 50.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Groulx
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Groulx
Larsson
Last 6: Groulx 3-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Groulx
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
1
0
Groulx
Larsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (393)
50.5% (4,382)
-5.7%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
47.7% (153)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (94)
43.8% (714)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Larsson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Groulx is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Groulx shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Home / Away
Groulx
Larsson
Home
50.0% (244)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
36.1% (252)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Groulx
Larsson
P1
45.1%
51.6%
P2
43.9%
49.7%
P3
40.4%
47.2%
OT
33.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
42.9%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Bo Groulx |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |