Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 44.1% vs Lafferty 47.5% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 63.1%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 66.0%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 54.2%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Groulx
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Groulx
Lafferty
Last 5: Groulx 3-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
2
1
Groulx
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (393)
47.9% (1,417)
-3.1%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
45.7% (46)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (94)
43.5% (184)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Groulx is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Groulx shoots left. Lafferty is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Groulx
Lafferty
Home
50.0% (244)
47.3% (833)
Away
36.1% (252)
47.4% (814)
By Period
Groulx
Lafferty
P1
45.1%
49.4%
P2
43.9%
43.1%
P3
40.4%
49.6%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
42.9%
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |