Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.9% vs 42.6%). Look for Groulx on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 44.1% vs Thompson 42.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.9%
Defensive zone
Groulx 66.7%
Neutral zone
Groulx 51.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Groulx
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
Thompson
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Groulx
2
1
Groulx
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Groulx
2
0
Groulx
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (393)
42.9% (3,540)
+1.9%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
46.9% (373)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (94)
33.6% (265)
+1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Groulx is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Groulx shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Groulx
Thompson
Home
50.0% (244)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
36.1% (252)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Groulx
Thompson
P1
45.1%
44.4%
P2
43.9%
43.7%
P3
40.4%
40.0%
OT
33.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
42.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |