Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Horvat wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 69.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.1%
Neutral zone
Horvat 50.9%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Horvat
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Horvat
Pavelski
Last 8: Horvat 5-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Horvat
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
51.5% (594)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
51.7% (87)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
28.6% (14)
+22.7%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Horvat is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (531).
Horvat shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Horvat
Pavelski
Home
54.2% (714)
53.1% (339)
Away
53.6% (705)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Horvat
Pavelski
P1
53.5%
53.8%
P2
56.3%
47.8%
P3
53.5%
50.2%
OT
28.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
52.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
42.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |