Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 71.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 86.1%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 77.9%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 80.3%
19.7%
80.3%
Horvat
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
Sourdif
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Sourdif
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Horvat
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Horvat
Sourdif
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (713)
44.3% (585)
+11.1%
Power Play
63.2% (242)
50.0% (24)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
61.5% (13)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Horvat is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Horvat shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sourdif
Home
59.0% (515)
43.6% (321)
Away
54.0% (544)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Horvat
Sourdif
P1
59.6%
41.9%
P2
53.9%
44.3%
P3
56.2%
47.9%
OT
55.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |