Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 75.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 78.8%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 77.0%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 77.4%
22.6%
77.4%
Horvat
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
Sourdif
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Sourdif
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Horvat
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Horvat
Sourdif
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
44.3% (585)
+9.6%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
50.0% (24)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
61.5% (13)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Horvat is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (6,120).
Horvat shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sourdif
Home
56.1% (8,423)
43.6% (321)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Horvat
Sourdif
P1
54.1%
41.9%
P2
54.5%
44.3%
P3
55.0%
47.9%
OT
49.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |