Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Horvat wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs Paul 53.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 61.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Horvat
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
Paul
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
6
Horvat
Paul
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (713)
53.7% (354)
+1.7%
Power Play
63.2% (242)
59.0% (61)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
52.9% (34)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Horvat is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Horvat shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Horvat
Paul
Home
59.0% (515)
55.1% (216)
Away
54.0% (544)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Horvat
Paul
P1
59.6%
54.9%
P2
53.9%
54.5%
P3
56.2%
54.3%
OT
55.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:10 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |