Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 21 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Paul 52.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 50-39 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 67.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 74.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 73.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Horvat
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
50
(89 meetings)
39
50
Horvat
Paul
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
19
21
Horvat
Paul
40 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
12
16
Horvat
Paul
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
8
13
Horvat
Paul
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,637)
52.6% (3,823)
+1.3%
Power Play
61.1% (2,711)
56.2% (484)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,497)
46.9% (576)
+0.3%
On power play, Horvat has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,730).
Horvat shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Horvat
Paul
Home
56.1% (8,401)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Horvat
Paul
P1
54.1%
53.8%
P2
54.4%
51.0%
P3
55.0%
52.2%
OT
49.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
54.5%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:10 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 16:47 | Neutral | Nick Paul |