Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 74.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.9%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Horvat
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Horvat
Sturm
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
13
1
Horvat
Sturm
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
9
Horvat
Sturm
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Horvat
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.2%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
61.3% (62)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
51.0% (498)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sturm
Home
56.1% (8,423)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Horvat
Sturm
P1
54.1%
56.5%
P2
54.5%
54.9%
P3
55.0%
57.4%
OT
49.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 08:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 12:04 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:09 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |