Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.7% vs 56.5%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 58.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 53.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 61.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Horvat
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Horvat
Stamkos
Last 6: Horvat 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Horvat
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Horvat
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
57.1% (368)
-1.4%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
55.2% (96)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
50.0% (10)
-1.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Horvat is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Horvat shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Horvat
Stamkos
Home
59.4% (537)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.0% (544)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Horvat
Stamkos
P1
59.9%
56.7%
P2
54.5%
54.1%
P3
56.1%
59.2%
OT
55.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.4%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |