Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 50.9%). Jenner wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 51.1% vs Nelson 50.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 59.5%
Defensive zone
Jenner 52.0%
Neutral zone
Jenner 55.2%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Jenner
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Jenner
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (265)
50.9% (928)
+0.4%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
59.8% (179)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
43.4% (205)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Jenner is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (215).
Jenner shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Jenner
Nelson
Home
52.7% (165)
52.9% (654)
Away
50.0% (144)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Jenner
Nelson
P1
49.0%
48.4%
P2
45.0%
54.3%
P3
59.5%
50.5%
Final 5 min
55.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
51.5%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |