Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Jenner wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 88.5%
Defensive zone
Jenner 88.7%
Neutral zone
Jenner 94.5%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Jenner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Jenner
MacKinnon
Last 10: Jenner 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Jenner
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
12
3
Jenner
MacKinnon
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
44.7% (1,053)
+9.5%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
36.8% (95)
+23.2%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
65.0% (20)
-15.3%
On power play, Jenner has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jenner is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Jenner shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Jenner
MacKinnon
Home
56.7% (693)
49.4% (553)
Away
52.7% (693)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Jenner
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
45.3%
P2
54.1%
42.7%
P3
53.0%
45.1%
OT
61.9%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 14:58 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:35 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 03:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |