Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Jenner wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 51.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 51.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Jenner
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Jenner
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (265)
45.5% (756)
+5.8%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
42.1% (114)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Jenner has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Jenner is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (215).
Jenner shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Jenner
Cates
Home
52.7% (165)
46.2% (468)
Away
50.0% (144)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Jenner
Cates
P1
49.0%
46.0%
P2
45.0%
47.5%
P3
59.5%
42.1%
Final 5 min
55.4%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
51.5%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |