Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +39.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 47.2% vs Larkin 52.2% (-39.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 59.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Marchand
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
12.5% (8)
51.1% (915)
-38.6%
On even strength, Larkin has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 0.0% vs left-shot opponents (6).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
16.7% (6)
51.7% (686)
Away
0.0% (2)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
16.7%
52.5%
P2
0.0%
52.7%
Final 5 min
25.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
12.5%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |