Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Richards wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Richards leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 59.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Richards
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
Richards
Pavelski
Last 10: Richards 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
4
2
Richards
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
5
Richards
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
5
2
Richards
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (4,561)
53.6% (8,791)
-3.2%
Power Play
51.0% (512)
58.2% (2,122)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (92)
50.9% (1,138)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Richards is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,806).
Richards shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Richards
Pavelski
Home
51.1% (2,671)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
49.5% (2,512)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Richards
Pavelski
P1
49.6%
53.5%
P2
50.3%
55.2%
P3
51.0%
53.9%
OT
50.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 13, 2010 | OT | 04:51 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 1 | 02:39 | Neutral | Brad Richards |