Scouting Report
Brad Richards holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.3% vs Ellis 46.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Ellis leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 63.5%
Defensive zone
Ellis 80.4%
Neutral zone
Ellis 66.8%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Richards
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Richards
Ellis
Last 10: Richards 4-6 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
4
Richards
Ellis
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
2
Richards
Ellis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
2
Richards
Ellis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (4,561)
47.3% (607)
+3.1%
Power Play
51.0% (512)
28.6% (7)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (92)
42.1% (95)
-0.8%
On power play, Richards has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Richards is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,377).
Richards shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Richards
Ellis
Home
51.1% (2,671)
48.5% (303)
Away
49.5% (2,512)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Richards
Ellis
P1
49.6%
50.0%
P2
50.3%
46.2%
P3
51.0%
41.3%
OT
50.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 16:33 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 11:34 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |