Scouting Report
Brad Richardson holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Richardson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 55.8% vs Sturm 52.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richardson 64.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 68.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 55.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Richardson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Richardson
Sturm
Last 6: Richardson 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
2
0
Richardson
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Richardson
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Richardson
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (221)
54.0% (480)
+5.7%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
28.6% (7)
+71.4%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (16)
50.0% (102)
-18.7%
On power play, Richardson has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Richardson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (151).
Richardson shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Richardson
Sturm
Home
60.2% (88)
54.0% (287)
Away
57.0% (151)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Richardson
Sturm
P1
63.8%
53.5%
P2
59.1%
51.0%
P3
50.7%
55.1%
Final 5 min
65.3%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
58.2%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |