Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Beagle 56.7% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 98.1%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 94.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 76.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Tkachuk
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Tkachuk
Beagle
Last 9: Tkachuk 1-8 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Beagle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
0
6
Tkachuk
Beagle
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
0
2
Tkachuk
Beagle
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
57.5% (4,994)
-8.6%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
60.5% (119)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
54.2% (1,554)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Beagle
Home
50.7% (1,435)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Tkachuk
Beagle
P1
49.4%
57.4%
P2
51.3%
57.1%
P3
49.1%
56.2%
OT
55.3%
41.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 25, 2021 | 2 | 17:44 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 25, 2021 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 20, 2019 | 3 | 16:15 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 20, 2019 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 20, 2019 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 2, 2019 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |