Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Backlund 49.8% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 66.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Tkachuk
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Tkachuk
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
50.5% (944)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
51.5% (66)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
47.1% (297)
+52.9%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Backlund
Home
50.8% (128)
48.1% (636)
Away
62.9% (132)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Tkachuk
Backlund
P1
56.6%
45.4%
P2
58.9%
54.1%
P3
56.2%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |