Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Thompson 52.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 94.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 81.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 57.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Tkachuk
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Tkachuk
Thompson
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
0
Tkachuk
Thompson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
7
Tkachuk
Thompson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Tkachuk
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
54.1% (5,812)
-5.2%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
54.8% (135)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
47.9% (1,381)
-2.9%
On even strength, Thompson has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thompson
Home
50.7% (1,435)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thompson
P1
49.4%
53.2%
P2
51.3%
52.9%
P3
49.1%
52.8%
OT
55.3%
47.9%
Final 5 min
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 08:31 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 20, 2019 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |