Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Tkachuk
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Sturm
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Tkachuk
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
54.6% (271)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
54.4% (90)
+45.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +45.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Sturm
Home
50.8% (128)
53.0% (168)
Away
62.9% (132)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Tkachuk
Sturm
P1
56.6%
58.2%
P2
58.9%
53.2%
P3
56.2%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |