Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Thomas 51.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 58.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Tkachuk
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
Tkachuk
Thomas
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
0
Tkachuk
Thomas
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
10
Tkachuk
Thomas
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
4
Tkachuk
Thomas
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
51.1% (5,387)
-2.2%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
55.8% (927)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
50.2% (697)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thomas
Home
50.7% (1,435)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thomas
P1
49.4%
50.7%
P2
51.3%
53.0%
P3
49.1%
50.8%
OT
55.3%
59.2%
Final 5 min
47.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:43 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:56 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |