Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 68.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 52.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
Tkachuk
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tkachuk
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
58.7% (858)
-3.8%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
55.8% (285)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Hertl
Home
50.8% (128)
60.1% (599)
Away
62.9% (132)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Tkachuk
Hertl
P1
56.6%
52.4%
P2
58.9%
63.9%
P3
56.2%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |