Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Schenn wins 58.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Evans 55.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 83.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 68.1%
Neutral zone
Schenn 58.7%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Schenn
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Schenn
Evans
Last 8: Schenn 3-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Schenn
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Schenn
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
55.6% (522)
-4.1%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
72.7% (11)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
55.2% (210)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Schenn is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Schenn shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Schenn
Evans
Home
53.9% (412)
54.7% (402)
Away
53.3% (375)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Schenn
Evans
P1
49.6%
57.9%
P2
52.0%
55.2%
P3
58.1%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:18 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |