Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 55.4%
Defensive zone
Schenn 53.1%
Neutral zone
Schenn 55.1%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Schenn
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Schenn
O'Reilly
Last 7: Schenn 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Schenn
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Schenn
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
1
Schenn
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
55.7% (856)
-4.2%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
57.5% (233)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
50.0% (144)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Schenn
O'Reilly
Home
53.9% (412)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.3% (375)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Schenn
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
58.1%
P2
52.0%
54.9%
P3
58.1%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 02:38 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |