Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Schenn wins 58.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 51.7%
Defensive zone
Schenn 60.2%
Neutral zone
Schenn 53.9%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Schenn
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Schenn
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Schenn
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
57.1% (368)
-5.6%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
55.2% (96)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
50.0% (10)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Schenn is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Schenn shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Schenn
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (412)
53.9% (230)
Away
53.3% (375)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Schenn
Stamkos
P1
49.6%
56.7%
P2
52.0%
54.1%
P3
58.1%
59.2%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |