Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Schenn on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.3%
17.7%
82.3%
Schenn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Schenn
Hertl
Last 10: Schenn 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
5
1
Schenn
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
1
Schenn
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
58.7% (858)
-7.2%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
55.8% (285)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
62.9% (35)
+3.8%
On power play, Schenn has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Schenn
Hertl
Home
53.9% (412)
60.1% (599)
Away
53.3% (375)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Schenn
Hertl
P1
49.6%
52.4%
P2
52.0%
63.9%
P3
58.1%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |