Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaunce wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Eller 55.0% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 54.6%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 55.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Gaunce
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Gaunce
Eller
Last 6: Gaunce 2-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Gaunce
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
3
Gaunce
Eller
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
56.0% (459)
+2.1%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
77.8% (9)
-77.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
51.9% (54)
+0.1%
On power play, Eller has a +77.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Gaunce is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Gaunce shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Eller
Home
54.8% (93)
52.6% (215)
Away
59.1% (88)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Gaunce
Eller
P1
62.3%
54.1%
P2
48.1%
57.6%
P3
59.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
51.2%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 09:34 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 02:44 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:02 | Neutral | Lars Eller |