Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 51.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Gaunce leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.1%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 59.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Gaunce
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Gaunce
Hertl
Last 10: Gaunce 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Gaunce
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
3
2
Gaunce
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (894)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
59.2% (1,995)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (92)
46.3% (806)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Gaunce has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaunce is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Gaunce shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Hertl
Home
49.9% (525)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
54.5% (470)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Gaunce
Hertl
P1
53.6%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
54.2%
P3
55.0%
55.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
52.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Feb 25, 2017 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |