Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Larkin 52.2% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Howden
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Howden
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
3
0
Howden
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
51.1% (915)
-1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
59.4% (261)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
48.2% (168)
-1.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Howden is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Howden shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Howden
Larkin
Home
46.5% (217)
51.7% (686)
Away
52.7% (237)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Howden
Larkin
P1
51.4%
52.5%
P2
51.6%
52.7%
P3
48.5%
51.4%
OT
26.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |