Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Howden wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Barzal 41.9% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 58.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 51.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Howden
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Howden
Barzal
Last 7: Howden 3-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
3
Howden
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
40.9% (469)
+8.9%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
34.2% (38)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
28.6% (7)
+18.5%
On power play, Howden has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Howden is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Howden shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Howden
Barzal
Home
46.5% (217)
39.2% (250)
Away
52.7% (237)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Howden
Barzal
P1
51.4%
46.3%
P2
51.6%
36.7%
P3
48.5%
38.5%
OT
26.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |