Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Howden wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 50.5% vs Barzal 41.4% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 57.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 50.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 54.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Howden
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Howden
Barzal
Last 7: Howden 3-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
3
Howden
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (358)
40.4% (456)
+10.4%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
34.2% (38)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
28.6% (7)
+17.2%
On power play, Howden has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Howden is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Howden shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Howden
Barzal
Home
47.7% (174)
38.0% (242)
Away
53.0% (219)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Howden
Barzal
P1
53.3%
46.6%
P2
51.1%
35.4%
P3
49.2%
38.0%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
34.0%▼
48.0%
50.6%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |