Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Thomas 51.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 65.8%
Defensive zone
Howden 67.7%
Neutral zone
Howden 64.2%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Howden
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Howden
Thomas
Last 5: Howden 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Howden
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
50.3% (652)
-0.5%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
61.5% (104)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
54.2% (120)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Howden is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Howden shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Howden
Thomas
Home
46.5% (217)
52.0% (400)
Away
52.7% (237)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Howden
Thomas
P1
51.4%
49.6%
P2
51.6%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
51.0%
OT
26.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |