Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Boeser wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 41.8% vs Novak 43.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 60.5%
Defensive zone
Novak 65.6%
Neutral zone
Boeser 51.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Boeser
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Boeser
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boeser
1
0
Boeser
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (448)
41.8% (1,568)
-2.1%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
51.5% (134)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Boeser has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Boeser is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Boeser shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Boeser
Novak
Home
41.2% (245)
45.1% (831)
Away
39.0% (251)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Boeser
Novak
P1
37.2%
43.7%
P2
42.4%
42.8%
P3
40.5%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
42.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
40.5%
40.1%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Brock Boeser |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Brock Boeser |