Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.9%). Look for Soderberg on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Soderberg 47.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Soderberg leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Defensive zone
Soderberg 64.2%
Neutral zone
Soderberg 53.9%
Result
Carl Soderberg favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Nelson
Soderberg
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Nelson
Soderberg
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Soderberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Soderberg
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Soderberg
4
6
Nelson
Soderberg
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Soderberg
4
5
Nelson
Soderberg
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Soderberg
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.3% (4,444)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
53.1% (424)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
40.8% (601)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Soderberg shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Soderberg is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,391).
Home / Away
Nelson
Soderberg
Home
50.1% (5,878)
50.2% (2,703)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
45.6% (2,766)
By Period
Nelson
Soderberg
P1
48.7%
47.4%
P2
48.6%
48.2%
P3
47.7%
48.1%
OT
45.6%
46.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Soderberg
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Feb 9, 2019 | OT | 01:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 13:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Dec 17, 2018 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Dec 17, 2018 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2018 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Carl Soderberg |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 17:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Carl Soderberg |