Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Coyle 50.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 60.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Nelson
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Coyle
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
52.3% (853)
-1.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
44.4% (63)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
44.5% (191)
-1.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Nelson
Coyle
Home
52.9% (654)
49.0% (567)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Nelson
Coyle
P1
48.4%
49.5%
P2
54.3%
49.4%
P3
50.5%
52.6%
OT
41.2%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |