Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Blackwell 44.8% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 95.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Nelson
Blackwell
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Nelson
Blackwell
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Blackwell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
0
Nelson
Blackwell
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
0
2
Nelson
Blackwell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Blackwell
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
48.9% (180)
+1.9%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
0.0% (2)
+59.1%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
31.4% (86)
+11.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +59.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blackwell shoots right. Nelson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Nelson shoots left. Blackwell is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Nelson
Blackwell
Home
52.6% (639)
44.3% (149)
Away
48.9% (658)
41.2% (119)
By Period
Nelson
Blackwell
P1
48.3%
46.1%
P2
54.0%
34.5%
P3
50.4%
47.8%
Final 5 min
51.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |