Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Blackwell 44.8% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 95.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 92.0%
92.0%
8.0%
Nelson
Blackwell
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Nelson
Blackwell
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Blackwell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
0
Nelson
Blackwell
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
0
2
Nelson
Blackwell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Blackwell
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
48.9% (180)
+2.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
0.0% (2)
+59.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
31.4% (86)
+12.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +59.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blackwell shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Blackwell is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Nelson
Blackwell
Home
52.9% (654)
44.3% (149)
Away
48.9% (658)
41.2% (119)
By Period
Nelson
Blackwell
P1
48.4%
46.1%
P2
54.3%
34.5%
P3
50.5%
47.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |