Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.9%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Legwand 48.0% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Nelson
Legwand
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Legwand
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Legwand
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Legwand
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Legwand
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Legwand
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Legwand
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
47.7% (4,202)
+0.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
55.6% (516)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.6% (481)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Legwand shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Legwand is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,407).
Home / Away
Nelson
Legwand
Home
50.1% (5,878)
50.2% (2,607)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
45.6% (2,611)
By Period
Nelson
Legwand
P1
48.7%
49.8%
P2
48.6%
48.0%
P3
47.7%
46.6%
OT
45.6%
35.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Legwand
42.0%▬
43.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | David Legwand |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 1 | 14:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 1 | 11:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | David Legwand |