Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Mercer 39.9% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 95.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 83.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
6
(18 meetings)
12
6
Nelson
Mercer
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Mercer
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Mercer
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Mercer
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
39.1% (1,412)
+8.8%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
41.1% (90)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.3% (46)
+2.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
50.1% (5,878)
40.1% (756)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
38.5% (792)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
48.7%
38.2%
P2
48.6%
39.2%
P3
47.7%
41.2%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 16:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |